Something is rotten in the state of DPRK

I hate to be glib about anyone dying, as I am up there in the title, but this is Kim Jong-il, whose regime is responsible for the deaths of possibly multiple millions of people.

With the Dear Leader having missed the state funeral of 95-year-old Pak Sŏngchŏl, considered the last of Pyongyang's first-generation revolutionaries, there is speculation that at the very least his health is bad but more likely his own demise may be imminent. Many believe that the 66-year-old leader suffered a stroke sometime during the summer. (Pak was the nation's fifth-most-powerful official and close to the Dear Leader's deified father, Great Leader Kim Ilsung, so missing the funeral is a big deal. He also missed the military parade marking the 60th anniversary of the founding of the Democratic People's Republic, which is also a big deal.)

So, the Los Angeles Times report goes on, there is increasing speculation about who will replace KJI. His own rise to power—essentially the communist world's first royal succession—was planned for many years before his own father's death. Not so with his own children now, especially since they seem to be too young, too immature, and too incompetent to gain respect and retain authority. This could mean tumultuous times both in and around North Korea. Hence all the ink spilled over this issue. 

Mei Renyi, a professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University believes "there's a secret arrangement that hasn't come to the surface yet. Even during China's dynasty period, there was this tradition when the emperor got sick."

But internal squabbling could undermine whatever plan is in place, especially since there are competing groups that are powerful but not definitively so:

North Korea experts said that for every theory on Kim's successor, there are compelling reasons against it. Although one view has it that the military could take over, led by the National Defense Commission, this body doesn't even have its own building, Flake said.

The idea that Kim's female caregiver, Kim Ok, and his inner personal circle might get the nod calls into question whether this group has the power base needed to govern.

Another possibility is the Organization and Guidance Department, which controls government appointments. Little is known about this entity, nor has its profile been elevated to prepare for such a role.

Finally, there is Kim's oldest son, 37-year-old Kim Jong Nam. But he fell into disfavor after he was detained in 2001 for sneaking into Japan on a fake passport in an attempt to visit Tokyo Disneyland. Kim Jong Il's two younger sons, in their 20s, are widely viewed as too inexperienced.

Now that the election is almost over, it could give us something interesting to pay attention to. And it could be that challenge to Obama's presidency that Biden warned us about. Be sure to read the rest of the interesting LAT piece.